Ground Media study finds Trump’s anti-trans ad fails politically, but dangerously erodes public support for trans people

Washington, DC — October 24, 2024 – Ground Media, a pioneer in data-driven, purpose-led storytelling, today released a groundbreaking randomized control trial that tested the effectiveness of a recent Trump anti-transgender campaign ad. 

Despite the Trump campaign recently spending more than $20 million to air anti-transgender TV ads over 55,000 times in battleground states, Ground Media’s study reveals that the ad fails to achieve its political goals. The data is based on a Swayable randomized controlled trial of 1,981 adults, including 1,354 likely voters, conducted by Ground Media on October 19, 2024, with a confidence interval of 95%. The study compared responses of those who saw the Trump ad to those who saw an unrelated ad, and revealed that the Trump ad yielded no statistically significant shift in voter choice, mobilization or likelihood to vote.

However, the study highlights a more harmful consequence for trans Americans: the ad significantly reduces public acceptance of trans people across nearly all demographics. Viewers exposed to the anti-trans ad were less likely to support policies ensuring trans access to healthcare (-3.7 point backlash) and showed a reduced comfortability with accepting a trans friend or family member (-3.1 point backlash), even among those who say they currently know someone who is trans (-3.5 point backlash).

"What this demonstrates is that attacking the trans community isn’t just a weak and feckless political strategy—it’s a deeply cynical one,” said David Rochkind, CEO of Ground Media. “These ads weaponize trans-identity to sow fear and division, making our country less safe for everyone.”

Last week, Vice President Harris responded to a question from Fox News’ Bret Baier regarding trans healthcare for incarcerated people, referring to it as a “remote issue” and stating: “I will follow the law, and it’s a law that Donald Trump actually followed.” She emphasized that the government is legally obligated to provide medically necessary healthcare to all individuals in its custody.

Previously, a 2024 GLAAD Voter Poll found 53% of both registered and likely 2024 voters say they would oppose a political candidate who speaks frequently about restrictions that target trans youth. Further, GLAAD’s 2024 Accelerating Acceptance Report found 77% of non-LGBTQ Americans would support a trans friend or family member.

Earlier this year, Ground Media, in collaboration with GLAAD, the world’s largest LGBTQ media advocacy organization, launched the Here We Are campaign to elevate the stories of trans Americans and their families and counter anti-trans narratives expected in the 2024 election cycle. These ads, including one featuring Nadya Lopez, a trans woman from Miami, and her father, are currently running in Michigan, in partnership with Equality Michigan Action Network, as well as in Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Ohio. In Michigan alone, the ads have generated 25 million impressions and 3 million video views. 

“Transgender people just want to live their lives free from fear,” Lopez said. “I’m not political - I just want the world to know that we are here, our lives are filled with joy, and we are not going anywhere.”

Methodology

Based on a Swayable randomized controlled trial of the Trump anti-trans ad of 1,981 adults in the U.S. conducted by Ground Media on October 19, 2024. Findings have been reported at a 95% Confidence Interval.

Additional Sources

Trump campaign’s anti-trans ad spending estimate: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-anti-trans-ads-spending/

Vice President Harris response: https://www.advocate.com/election/kamala-harris-fox-news-transgender.

2024 GLAAD Voter Poll: https://glaad.org/election-2024-voter-poll/ 

GLAAD’s 2024 Accelerating Acceptance Report: https://glaad.org/accelerating-acceptance-2024/

About the “Here We Are” Campaign

Here We Are is a groundbreaking storytelling campaign produced by GLAAD and Ground Media, focused on amplifying the voices of trans individuals to foster acceptance and combat discrimination. The campaign features 13 video vignettes and two radio spots of trans adults and their supportive families. Comcast NBCUniversal, TikTok, iHeartRadio, and Paramount are among companies to donate ad space to run the ads nationwide. Here We Are was named an Ad Age Editor’s Pick and last week was named a finalist in multiple categories of the Anthem Awards. For more information, visit http://HereWeAreNow.com.

About Ground Media

Ground Media is an award-winning, data-driven storytelling studio committed to helping purpose-driven organizations achieve measurable impact. Through its proprietary messaging analytics platform, StoryHeat, Ground Media transforms complex data into dynamic narratives that inspire action and foster real-world change. Ground Media partners with nonprofits, foundations, socially responsible brands, agencies, and political campaigns to amplify their messages and create stories that truly matter. Recent clients include Disney, Johnson & Johnson, National Geographic, GLAAD, Harvard University, Global Fund Advocates Network, and CARE. For more information, visit https://www.ground.media or contact us at impact@ground.media.

About GLAAD

GLAAD rewrites the script for LGBTQ acceptance by tackling issues that shape the narrative and spark cultural change. Through media advocacy, GLAAD challenges discrimination, defends hard-earned progress, and creates a world where everyone is free to live the life they love. For more information, visit www.glaad.org or connect with @GLAAD on social media.

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