Ground Media study finds Trump’s anti-trans ad fails politically, but dangerously erodes public support for trans people

October 24, 2024
October 28, 2024
Ground Media and GLAAD Launched “Here We Are” Trans Storytelling Ads in Battleground and Other Key States to Counter Anti-Trans Narratives

Washington, DC — October 24, 2024 – Ground Media, a pioneer in data-driven, purpose-led storytelling, today released a groundbreaking randomized control trial that tested the effectiveness of a recent Trump anti-transgender campaign ad. 

Despite the Trump campaign recently spending more than $20 million to air anti-transgender TV ads over 55,000 times in battleground states, Ground Media’s study reveals that the ad fails to achieve its political goals. The data is based on a Swayable randomized controlled trial of 1,981 adults, including 1,354 likely voters, conducted by Ground Media on October 19, 2024, with a confidence interval of 95%. The study compared responses of those who saw the Trump ad to those who saw an unrelated ad, and revealed that the Trump ad yielded no statistically significant shift in voter choice, mobilization or likelihood to vote.

However, the study highlights a more harmful consequence for trans Americans: the ad significantly reduces public acceptance of trans people across nearly all demographics. Viewers exposed to the anti-trans ad were less likely to support policies ensuring trans access to healthcare (-3.7 point backlash) and showed a reduced comfortability with accepting a trans friend or family member (-3.1 point backlash), even among those who say they currently know someone who is trans (-3.5 point backlash).

"What this demonstrates is that attacking the trans community isn’t just a weak and feckless political strategy—it’s a deeply cynical one,” said David Rochkind, CEO of Ground Media. “These ads weaponize trans-identity to sow fear and division, making our country less safe for everyone.”

Last week, Vice President Harris responded to a question from Fox News’ Bret Baier regarding trans healthcare for incarcerated people, referring to it as a “remote issue” and stating: “I will follow the law, and it’s a law that Donald Trump actually followed.” She emphasized that the government is legally obligated to provide medically necessary healthcare to all individuals in its custody.

Previously, a 2024 GLAAD Voter Poll found 53% of both registered and likely 2024 voters say they would oppose a political candidate who speaks frequently about restrictions that target trans youth. Further, GLAAD’s 2024 Accelerating Acceptance Report found 77% of non-LGBTQ Americans would support a trans friend or family member.

Earlier this year, Ground Media, in collaboration with GLAAD, the world’s largest LGBTQ media advocacy organization, launched the Here We Are campaign to elevate the stories of trans Americans and their families and counter anti-trans narratives expected in the 2024 election cycle. These ads, including one featuring Nadya Lopez, a trans woman from Miami, and her father, are currently running in Michigan, in partnership with Equality Michigan Action Network, as well as in Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Ohio. In Michigan alone, the ads have generated 25 million impressions and 3 million video views. 

“Transgender people just want to live their lives free from fear,” Lopez said. “I’m not political - I just want the world to know that we are here, our lives are filled with joy, and we are not going anywhere.”

Methodology

Based on a Swayable randomized controlled trial of the Trump anti-trans ad of 1,981 adults in the U.S. conducted by Ground Media on October 19, 2024. Findings have been reported at a 95% Confidence Interval.

Additional Sources

Trump campaign’s anti-trans ad spending estimate: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-anti-trans-ads-spending/

Vice President Harris response: https://www.advocate.com/election/kamala-harris-fox-news-transgender.

2024 GLAAD Voter Poll: https://glaad.org/election-2024-voter-poll/ 

GLAAD’s 2024 Accelerating Acceptance Report: https://glaad.org/accelerating-acceptance-2024/

About the “Here We Are” Campaign

Here We Are is a groundbreaking storytelling campaign produced by GLAAD and Ground Media, focused on amplifying the voices of trans individuals to foster acceptance and combat discrimination. The campaign features 13 video vignettes and two radio spots of trans adults and their supportive families. Comcast NBCUniversal, TikTok, iHeartRadio, and Paramount are among companies to donate ad space to run the ads nationwide. Here We Are was named an Ad Age Editor’s Pick and last week was named a finalist in multiple categories of the Anthem Awards. For more information, visit http://HereWeAreNow.com.

About Ground Media

Ground Media is an award-winning, data-driven storytelling studio committed to helping purpose-driven organizations achieve measurable impact. Through its proprietary messaging analytics platform, StoryHeat, Ground Media transforms complex data into dynamic narratives that inspire action and foster real-world change. Ground Media partners with nonprofits, foundations, socially responsible brands, agencies, and political campaigns to amplify their messages and create stories that truly matter. Recent clients include Disney, Johnson & Johnson, National Geographic, GLAAD, Harvard University, Global Fund Advocates Network, and CARE. For more information, visit https://www.ground.media or contact us at impact@ground.media.

About GLAAD

GLAAD rewrites the script for LGBTQ acceptance by tackling issues that shape the narrative and spark cultural change. Through media advocacy, GLAAD challenges discrimination, defends hard-earned progress, and creates a world where everyone is free to live the life they love. For more information, visit www.glaad.org or connect with @GLAAD on social media.

‍

More news
November 19, 2024
November 19, 2024
Ground Media and GLAAD Win Four Anthem Awards for Groundbreaking “HERE WE ARE” Campaign
Campaign Promotes Transgender Visibility, Combats Misinformation, and Advocates for Equality
October 31, 2024
October 31, 2024
Recap: The Future of Strategic Storytelling at the Mid-Atlantic MarComm Summit
Ground Media’s Founder and CEO, David Rochkind, led a compelling panel on "The Future of Strategic Storytelling" at the Mid-Atlantic Marcomm Sumit on Wednesdsy October 31, 2024 in Arlington, VA. Joined by industry leaders Marley Rosario and Jesse Tolkan, the session attracted marketing professionals eager to explore how storytelling is evolving to meet new demands in persuasion campaigns, with a focus on moving beyond emotional storytelling to achieving measurable impact.
November 19, 2024
October 28, 2024
How the Harris Campaign’s Messaging is Driving Voter Engagement on the Economy
In the final Election '24: Stories That Win report of the series, GROUND Media, in collaboration with Swayable, examined how the Harris campaign is addressing economic messaging to resonate with voters. The analysis focused on two ads that approach economic issues differently: one highlighting personal economic stories and the other centered on policy achievements. The findings reveal critical insights into what works—and what doesn’t—when it comes to connecting with voters on this key issue.
October 28, 2024
October 28, 2024
Ground Media and Glaad named finalists in four categories at the 4th Annual Anthem Awards for groundbreaking “Here We Are” video campaign
Campaign Confronts Misinformation, Elevates Transgender Visibility, and Advocates for Equality
October 28, 2024
October 25, 2024
Ground Media to sponsor Mid-Atlantic Marcom Summit, lead strategic storytelling panel, and showcase storyheat platform
StoryHeat’s Early Testing Aligns Campaigns With Audience Expectations And Emotional Drivers To Reduce Missed Messaging, Maximize Quantifiable Storytelling ROI
October 28, 2024
October 7, 2024
Reproductive Rights and the 2024 Election: Key Insights from Harris Campaign Ads
As the debate over reproductive rights intensifies in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, the Harris campaign has taken a strategic approach to messaging around this critical issue. In collaboration with Swayable, GROUND Media analyzed the effectiveness of three ads centered on reproductive rights to determine their impact on voter sentiment and choice.
October 28, 2024
August 29, 2024
Storytelling vs. Policy: What Drives Voter Persuasion?
In the latest installment of Election '24: Stories That Win, GROUND Media, in partnership with Swayable, conducted a test to uncover the factors that drive voter persuasion. Two distinct ads from Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign were analyzed—one focusing on her personal journey and character, the other on her policy track record, specifically related to immigration. The results provide critical insights into what resonates most with voters.
October 28, 2024
August 13, 2024
Harris Campaign Launch Ad Makes Gains in Key Swing States
A new GROUND Media analysis in partnership with Swayable reveals that the Harris campaign’s launch ad is gaining traction in critical swing states, according to a recent survey conducted by Swayable using Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). This marks the first in a series of GROUND Media reports under the banner of Election '24: Stories That Win, which aims to analyze how campaign storytelling is shaping the race.